25/05/2026
ONE: In Nigeria, electioneering campaigns are usually tedious when new governors or NASS members are coming in. Put differently, most politicians do not aspire for offices against incumbent office holders. This makes re-election a fairly easy ride.
TWO: To replace Ned Nwoko with Dr Ifeanyi Okowa is like replacing Asuquo Ekpenyong with Donald Duke; you lose nothing, or Jarigbe with HE Ayade, you lose nothing as a party.
If a governor creates a situation where 2/3 of the NASS candidates of his party are all new entrants, he has created the FIRST-TERM-ELECTION scenarios.
Under this scenario, heavy weight politicians who would have waited to contest when an entirely new government is coming in will immediately jump into the race, and in some cases, get incumbents racing with new entrants as it is with Abi/Yakurr federal constituency.
What this scenario creates is that it makes the candidates run on the credibility and influence of the governor. But because the governor has his re-election to bother about, a lot goes wrong, especially if he is not a Wike kind of governor who has grassroot influence across the state.
Yes, 3 years is not enough for a governor to build that type of influence. If a governor does 4yrs first tenure, 3yrs into his second tenure (making 7yrs) with no re-election to worry about, he would have built enough capacity to help his anointed candidates.
Again, to replace a sitting NASS member with a name that is barely known or maybe possibly heard of (by many) only during the electioneering process is dangerous for a first time governor. This is so because the candidate is no threat to anybody on his own. His only force is the governor's.
What wisdom does is place your boys in very juicy positions (for 7yrs) where they are able to make enough money to run their elections without depending on party funds.
Some of the APC candidates in some states/constituencies cannot match kobo to kobo with the candidates they are raised to replace.
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